Thursday, December 06, 2007

Lame duck reversing course?

A recent guest post at Tony Karon's Rootless Cosmopolitan by Gary Sick, a knowledgeable analyst of U.S.-Iran affairs, struck me as worthwhile when it appeared just before the Annapolis meeting.

Now it's even more worthy of a look, in light of DNI Mike McConnell's declassification of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran -- delayed for many months because of its conclusion that the Iranian nuclear program has been dormant since 2003. Many commenters have wondered why the Bush regime would have allowed this release, since it's eliminated one of their major arguments for war.

Part of Karon's summary:
Gary argues that while some factors now point towards the possibility of a U.S. opening to Iran in the final year of the Bush Administration, this remains a “policy that dare not speak its name,” meaning that any such shift will definitely not be declared even if it is underway.
Gary Sick: The Policy That Dare Not Speak Its Name

If Sick is right, my conviction that the regime will strike Iran before leaving office is wrong. Never so happy to be proved wrong in my life! Now to keep a close eye on the signs one way or the other...



At 2:23 PM, December 06, 2007, Blogger Thomas Nephew said...

Here's hoping!

I sometimes/often get confused how to think about this stuff; if Iran is officially less dangerous, might that undermine assembling an Arab coalition against it? Or does the US's relative 'honesty' make regional actors less shy of a US-led regional alliance vs. Iran -- which is still the big winner of the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Meanwhile, I've added Rootless Cosmopolitan to my blogroll.

At 1:57 PM, December 12, 2007, Blogger Thomas Nephew said...

Clarification: assembling a coalition against Iran is not something I consider an urgent matter -- I don't think they're angels, but I don't think an avowedly hostile coalition against them is a good approach. I meant to just be thinking along with the initial paragraphs Sick wrote.

At 10:31 PM, December 12, 2007, Blogger Nell said...


But it never hurts to clarify. ;>


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